Thursday, 7 June 2012

Who wins the semis?

Unless Ferrer is truly inspired and somehow can put aside the fact he is facing the greatest clay court player ever, a guy who has beaten him 11 times in a row on the surface, then Nadal makes the final in three tough sets.  It will be straight sets but probably tough ones at least the first two.  Ferrer has had his chances against the world number two before, and Nadal just does what Nadal does, and finds a way to raise his level to beat him.  In a way it seems destiny that Nadal will make this final.

The other semi you may think is harder to pick, but I am not so sure.  Yes Federer can play awesome tennis and can beat Djokovic, but after saving four match points against Tsonga the Serbinator must be totally pumped and feel it is his destiny to win all four slams in a row.  I cannot believe I am saying this but I want Djokovic to win because I feel he is the only one left who may give Nadal a match in the final.  Fed would have no chance against Nadal in this form, if he couldn’t win in the past it would be a miracle if he won now especially the way he is playing.  Unfortunately unlike the stock exchange, elite tennis has become very predictable and shocks don’t happen too often, the most likely shock now would be if Nadal did not win the final and Djokovic did, and let’s be honest that is not a great shock as shocks go is it.  In fact it would not even be a shock.

So, Nadal v Djokovic in the final and Nadal wins in straight sets.  Or maybe if the gods are smiling on Djokovic he keeps it tight wins a set and Nadal remembers all those losses, and we see another classic five setter, which Djokovic wins.  I know it seems like I am hedging my bets here but Nadal in this form on clay is nearly impossible to beat, even if you are Djokovic.  Djokovic also has the baggage of going for something no one has done since 1969.  He will have had a few tough matches beforehand not just one but maybe three in a row.  Eventually this catches up on you, then again Djokovic may feel and probably does feel he can beat Nadal on any surface, especially now in the biggest matches.  Consider some of those shots he blasted against Tsonga when he was match point down, they cleaned the lines, in his mind it is just like the US Open again.

In the space of a paragraph I seem to have changed my mind half a dozen times, most of my head says Nadal will win, but a small part thinks it maybe Djokovic who makes history.  I am sure it will be fantastic to watch all the same.

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