Monday, 25 June 2012

Wimbledon - same old same old – winner

Here we are again, another Wimbledon, at this time it seems a pointless to discuss who will win the championships, since it will be the same names bandied around.  I love tennis and I love the fact we are blessed with some of the greatest players of our time playing some of the greatest tennis.  Still this plethora of excellence does not take away the issue that no one of any significance has risen to the challenge of trying to beat the tennis elite for quite a while now.

One of the things that make sport great is that sometimes out of nowhere there is a surprise, someone does the impossible or eventually figures out their game, gains confidence, reaches their potential and wins.  This does not look likely in men’s tennis.  Men’s tennis is a closed club and does not look like it will change anytime soon.  The only likely winners are the top four; in fact the only winners will be the top four, because for everyone else the change-up in their game would have to be so massive to be unprecedented.

Yes there are a few new style players, tall, strong, powerful serves that could challenge, but their inexperience and consistency still makes it unlikely.

It is a known fact for every tennis player outside the top four, and this is what basically kills their chances; for one of them to stand a chance of winning, they will likely have to beat at least two or three of the greatest players ever.  Even Andy Murray, who in any other era would have probably won at least a couple of slams by now, knows this, and carrying this massive weight on ones shoulders before you even play Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic, surely makes it virtually impossible to defeat them.  And definitely impossible to beat all three of them, only Del Potro would I give the slightest chance to, and his record on the Wimbledon grass is not great.

The top three or in reality two now have been so dominant and so consistent the chances of them losing early in the championships are incredibly low indeed.

So as always it will be a fight between the top three or four, with one of the next five or six who may spring a surprise and make the semis, but at the end of the day in two Sundays time only four men have a chance of being champions. 

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