Wednesday, 25 January 2012

So who’s going to win the Aussie Open?

I know it’s a little early to say Djokovic will make it through to the semis, but let’s face it, Ferrer is going to have to play the game of his life or Djoks has to get injured for him not to make it through to the semis once more.

If Djoks does win as I expect, then it will be the second consecutive slam where the big four have made it through to the semis and the third in four slams.

The brilliant thing about these four giants of the game is that now they have made it anything can happen. If we go by the past, then the likely final will be Djokovic vs. Nadal. Djokovic has been nearly unbeatable in slams since hammering Murray last year in the Aussie Open final, and Nadal hasn’t lost to Federer in a Slam since 2007 Wimbledon final.

Saying that, both Murray and Federer have shown a change in their attitudes recently, Fed seems far more focused than he has done in ages, and as I have said before if he is focused he is nearly unbeatable, but can he get passed his nemesis Nadal. Unfortunately for Federer he needs a bit more than just focus to beat the great Spaniard, can he finally find it in a slam outside of the grass of Wimbledon?

Federer played fantastic tennis in beating Del Potro, someone I expected to give the great Swiss more of a battle, but Fed was back to his sublime best, playing his incredible shots and looking like he used to look when playing slams.

Murray has improved and played an amazing match against Llodra, but he is still a bit inconsistent on his serve, and if he plays like he did today against Nishikori, he won’t beat Djokovic. Saying that, Murray will serve better against the Serbinator, and it should be a close contest which could go anyway. Murray will have to take it to the next level and maybe a level above what he has ever done before to win it though.

So theoretically Murray and Federer might make it to the final, which I think would give Federer his fifth Aussie Open title and seventeenth overall. I don’t think Murray is ready to beat Federer in a slam final, in fact I think the only person that will stop Federer winning the event is Nadal.

If Federer beats Nadal then plays Djokovic, I think the confidence and desire will be so great, you will not see Fed losing a two set lead or for that matter losing two match points on serve. He seems to have pushed passed his unfocused spell and amazingly looks better than ever once more. What an incredible player he is; if he wins this slam he could go on another rip and set in stone the fact he is the greatest ever by quite a distance.

The thing is Federer has to get passed Nadal, and this is not an easy task for the Swiss, if Nadal makes the final and plays Murray well you have got to fancy Nadal to do what seemed impossible a few weeks ago and win his eleventh slam event. Saying that Murray has always played well against Nadal in Australia, and this could be the perfect time for Murray to step up to the plate and win his first slam.

If Nadal plays Djokovic you have to say Djoks will be a massive favourite to win again, giving him his fourth slam title in five. Then again Nadal may have figured out the Djokovic hoodoo, and somehow do what Nadal does best in win against all the odds.

Overall there should be three fantastic matches, and the one that comes through to become the winner will thoroughly deserve it. I still think that person will be Djokovic, but realistically any of them can do it. That’s as long as Ferrer doesn’t spoil the party (no disrespect to Ferrer, he is a great player), but something really unbelievable would have to happen for Djokovic not to beat the battling Spaniard.

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